Why ECOWAS is just blowing hot air but will not enter Niger

Unveiling Geopolitical Chess: Allies and Intrigue Amidst Niger's Crisis In the aftermath of the recent coup in Niger, a complex geopolitical drama unfolds as alliances and interests collide. Following the seizure of President Mohamed Bazoum, General Abdourahamane Tchiani of the presidential guard declares himself the leader of a military junta and head of state. As tension escalates, the ECOWAS coalition threatens military intervention if democratic governance isn't restored. However, the junta's unexpected backing from neighboring nations has shifted the power dynamics dramatically. France and ECOWAS now loom on Niger's horizon, issuing a stern ultimatum to the junta: release the ousted president or face invasion. Yet, uncertainty hovers over the military capabilities of Niger's forces in countering ECOWAS and its allies, prompting many to scrutinize the strength of support from neighboring countries. In this blog, I will spotlight five nations willing to back Niger in its crisis, each with their unique motivations and odds of success. Number 5: Guinea Niger finds an ally in Guinea, where the National Committee for Rally and Development (CNRD), which overthrew President Alpha Conde in 2021, endorses the new leadership. Guinea anticipates that Niger's junta will work diligently for stability and unity in the nation and the broader sub-region. This camaraderie underscores a shared experience of coup-led governance and the conviction in fostering peace. Number 4: Algeria Algeria, a surprise entrant into the coalition, pledges military support to safeguard Niger from France and ECOWAS. Rooted in the belief that the crisis should be internally resolved, Algeria fears a Libya-like scenario if external forces intervene. Algeria's own struggles against French control of its resources possibly underscore its solidarity with Niger's cause. Number 3: Russia Amid rising anti-French sentiments, Russia emerges as a player, potentially aligning with Niger. Despite controversies surrounding Putin, Russia's potent military force could be utilized to bolster Niger's junta and resist external intervention. The presence of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary entity, in the region further solidifies this alignment. Number 2: Mali Mali, scarred by French exploitation, stands united with Niger against external pressures. Mali's gold resources, the 15th largest globally, and shared disdain for France drive their alignment. Similar to Niger, Mali has also witnessed coups against perceived French-backed regimes, reflecting a common sentiment of addressing economic woes through change in leadership. Number 1: Burkina Faso Burkina Faso's support for Niger's coup echoes its recent history. President Ibrahim Traoré's overthrow of the previous government marked his emergence as the youngest African president. Traoré's defiance against perceived French influence resonates with Niger's stance, driven by a conviction that Africa must secure better trade agreements and resist impoverishment through resource exploitation. As the chessboard of alliances shifts, the fate of Niger hangs in the balance. These nations, united by shared experiences and grievances, navigate a tumultuous landscape where traditional power dynamics are tested. The outcome remains uncertain, but their collective resolve challenges the status quo and demands a reconsideration of Africa's future trajectory.